Odsage methodology
AI Releases context
Release markets move on naming, deadline wording, model-picker changes, API availability, and benchmark leaks.
AI Releases
Gemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut? odds
On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Argon model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity's Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity's Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity's Last Exam results. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity's Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model's HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
AITechArgonGeminigoogleAI ReleasesAI Benchmarks
Current yes probability
93.5%
One-month volume$26.3K
24h volume$2.8K
Liquidity$3.5K
Data sourcepolymarket
Research priority
64
Watchlist. This is an information-density score, not a bet recommendation.
volume15
liquidity10
probability Tension2
news Impact22
keyword Intent15
Market quality
47
Research only
Execution20
Avoid execution with estimated clean size of $53.
Resolution24
High wording risk; verify criteria before relying on the market price.
Evidence88
4 matching external signals in the current snapshot.
Edge64
Watchlist research-priority score from volume, liquidity, probability tension, news, and keyword intent.
Risk radar
Liquidity and execution are the main constraint. Avoid execution with estimated clean size of $53.
Next action
Wait for stronger evidence or cleaner liquidity before treating the price as actionable.
Sentiment-implied probability
No sentiment snapshot is available for this market yet. The next daily intelligence refresh can add one if enough relevant mentions are found.
Parlay cross-check
External market price check
No Parlay match is available in the current static snapshot. The next refresh will retry this market without calling the API from the browser.
Execution quality
Avoid
Estimated clean size: $53. Spread proxy: 7.7%.
$10015.1% / Thin for this size
$50035% / Thin for this size
$1,00035% / Thin for this size
Estimated from visible volume and liquidity. Use live orderbook depth before treating a headline price as executable.
Resolution intelligence
What this market is really measuring
Use this page as a research note: check the market question, the exact resolution source on Polymarket, benchmark movement, company announcements, and liquidity before treating the displayed probability as a durable signal.
Resolution risk
High / 76
High resolution risk. Read the exact criteria and wording before treating this market price as a durable signal.
Read the exact Polymarket resolution source and deadline.
Check whether the title depends on subjective wording or ranking criteria.
Confirm which model, company, date, or valuation threshold counts.
Compare headline probability with liquidity and recent price movement.
Look for disputes, oracle updates, or clarification comments before sizing a forecast.
Signal timeline
What could move this market next
Signals are evidence prompts, not picks. The point is to separate news, model evidence, and market mechanics.
Watch
fortune.com
Top AI models are getting really good at completing professional tasks, new OpenAI GDPval benchmark shows
Benchmark movement around OpenAI, Anthropic can shift best-model and model-ranking odds before formal resolution.
winbuzzer.com
Anthropic Releases Open-Source AI Bias Test, Pitting Claude Against GPT-5, Gemini, Grok in Race for AI Neutrality
Release timing around OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI is relevant to GPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok launch markets.
www.zdnet.com
Are GPT-5.2's new powers enough to surpass Gemini 3? Try it and see
Release timing around OpenAI, Google is relevant to GPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok launch markets.
www.abhs.in
ChatGPT GPT-5 vs Claude Fable 5: SWE-Bench 72.7%, $10/M Tokens
Benchmark movement around OpenAI, Anthropic, Google can shift best-model and model-ranking odds before formal resolution.
Binary market edge
Edge check for Gemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
Enter the current yes price and your own fair-probability estimate. Odsage calculates expected return on cost and a conservative Kelly fraction capped at 25% of bankroll.
Expected return
5.9%
Positive means your fair probability is above the market-implied price after cost.
Kelly fraction
25%
Capped at 25% for risk control. Many traders use half Kelly or less.
Suggested stake
$250
Calculated from bankroll times capped Kelly fraction.
Forecast lab
Save your fair probability before the market moves.
Reddit users asked for calibration, CLV-style tracking, and fewer black-box picks. This lab stores your own forecast locally so you can compare it with the market later.
Current market
93.5%
Forecast delta
Above market by 5.5%
Stored in this browser only. It is a calibration journal, not a trade recommendation.
Private research note
Keep your evidence trail for this market
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Filtered alerts
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Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
YES
9.5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1M VOL
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LIQUIDITY
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YES
32.5%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
1M VOL
$1.5M
LIQUIDITY
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AITechAI RankingsRecurring
AI Releases
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
YES
41.5%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
1M VOL
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LIQUIDITY
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TechAIGrokOpenAI