Odsage methodology
AI Policy context
Model leadership markets should be compared with benchmarks, releases, product access, and liquidity.
AI Policy
OpenAI resumes training on...? odds
On September 25, 2026, amid reports that its AI agents had probed U.S. government websites, including those of the Census Bureau and Education Department, OpenAI disclosed a pause in training, evaluation, and inference involving tool use for its most capable models. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces that it has resumed training covered by the pause announced on September 25, 2026. If no qualifying announcement is made by 11:59 PM ET on October 20, 2026, this market will resolve to "Not resumed by October 20". Resuming training means resuming, in part or in full, training suspended under the pause announced on September 25, 2026, including beginning a fresh training run in place of a suspended run. A qualifying announcement must be made through OpenAI's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. The totality of the announcement and its surrounding context must clearly establish that training covered by the pause announced on September 25 has resumed, even if the announcement does not name the incident or specify the date the pause was announced. Statements that training is permitted, planned, or expected to restart do not by themselves qualify. Training that was not subject to the pause announced on September 25, 2026, does not qualify. This market will resolve to the date of the first qualifying announcement, regardless of whether the announcement is later modified or withdrawn, or training is subsequently paused again. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AITechOpenAIAI SafetyAI Regulation
Current yes probability
0%
One-month volume$18.1K
24h volume$3.7K
Liquidity$15.2K
Data sourcepolymarket
Research priority
63
Watchlist. This is an information-density score, not a bet recommendation.
volume14
liquidity12
probability Tension0
news Impact22
keyword Intent15
Market quality
58
Research only
Execution48
Thin execution with estimated clean size of $36.
Resolution38
Medium wording risk; verify criteria before relying on the market price.
Evidence88
4 matching external signals in the current snapshot.
Edge63
Watchlist research-priority score from volume, liquidity, probability tension, news, and keyword intent.
Risk radar
Resolution criteria are the main constraint. Medium wording risk; verify criteria before relying on the market price.
Next action
Wait for stronger evidence or cleaner liquidity before treating the price as actionable.
Sentiment-implied probability
No sentiment snapshot is available for this market yet. The next daily intelligence refresh can add one if enough relevant mentions are found.
Parlay cross-check
External market price check
No Parlay match is available in the current static snapshot. The next refresh will retry this market without calling the API from the browser.
Execution quality
Thin
Estimated clean size: $36. Spread proxy: 7%.
$1008.7% / Thin for this size
$50015.6% / Thin for this size
$1,00024.1% / Thin for this size
Estimated from visible volume and liquidity. Use live orderbook depth before treating a headline price as executable.
Resolution intelligence
What this market is really measuring
Use this page as a research note: check the market question, the exact resolution source on Polymarket, benchmark movement, company announcements, and liquidity before treating the displayed probability as a durable signal.
Resolution risk
Medium / 62
Medium resolution risk. Read the exact criteria and wording before treating this market price as a durable signal.
Read the exact Polymarket resolution source and deadline.
Check whether the title depends on subjective wording or ranking criteria.
Confirm which model, company, date, or valuation threshold counts.
Compare headline probability with liquidity and recent price movement.
Look for disputes, oracle updates, or clarification comments before sizing a forecast.
Signal timeline
What could move this market next
Signals are evidence prompts, not picks. The point is to separate news, model evidence, and market mechanics.
Watch
fortune.com
Top AI models are getting really good at completing professional tasks, new OpenAI GDPval benchmark shows
Benchmark movement around OpenAI, Anthropic can shift best-model and model-ranking odds before formal resolution.
winbuzzer.com
Anthropic Releases Open-Source AI Bias Test, Pitting Claude Against GPT-5, Gemini, Grok in Race for AI Neutrality
Release timing around OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI is relevant to GPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok launch markets.
www.zdnet.com
Are GPT-5.2's new powers enough to surpass Gemini 3? Try it and see
Release timing around OpenAI, Google is relevant to GPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok launch markets.
www.abhs.in
ChatGPT GPT-5 vs Claude Fable 5: SWE-Bench 72.7%, $10/M Tokens
Benchmark movement around OpenAI, Anthropic, Google can shift best-model and model-ranking odds before formal resolution.
Binary market edge
Edge check for OpenAI resumes training on...?
Enter the current yes price and your own fair-probability estimate. Odsage calculates expected return on cost and a conservative Kelly fraction capped at 25% of bankroll.
Expected return
700%
Positive means your fair probability is above the market-implied price after cost.
Kelly fraction
7.1%
Capped at 25% for risk control. Many traders use half Kelly or less.
Suggested stake
$71
Calculated from bankroll times capped Kelly fraction.
Forecast lab
Save your fair probability before the market moves.
Reddit users asked for calibration, CLV-style tracking, and fewer black-box picks. This lab stores your own forecast locally so you can compare it with the market later.
Current market
0%
Forecast delta
Above market by 8%
Stored in this browser only. It is a calibration journal, not a trade recommendation.
Private research note
Keep your evidence trail for this market
Save the benchmark, resolution, or news detail you want to check next. Notes stay in this browser and are never sent to Odsage.
Filtered alerts
Choose what would make OpenAI resumes training on...? worth revisiting.
These preferences are saved in this browser for now. Email, push, wallet, and CLOB alerts can be layered on later once the signal filters prove useful.
Related markets
Watch these with OpenAI resumes training on...?
AI Markets
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
YES
9.5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1M VOL
$1.5M
LIQUIDITY
$1.3M
TechFinanceBusinessAnthropic
YES
32.5%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
1M VOL
$1.5M
LIQUIDITY
$1.4M
AITechAI RankingsRecurring
AI Releases
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
YES
41.5%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
1M VOL
$1M
LIQUIDITY
$1.3M
TechAIGrokOpenAI