YES
10.5%
Market-implied ranking for the company expected to hold the strongest frontier AI model at month end.
1M VOL
$5.9M
LIQUIDITY
$3.8M
AIOpenAIGrokGPT-5
Research Terminal / AI odds desk
AI model odds, benchmark deltas, and market-implied rankings.
AIModelOdds tracks Polymarket AI prediction markets and compares trader probabilities with benchmark signals for frontier models, release timelines, IPOs, and AI bubble risk.
Live thesis
Market-implied AI ranking
RANK 1
Which company has best AI model end of June?
10.5%
RANK 2
Claude 5 released by August?
28%
RANK 3
Anthropic IPO closing market cap
31%
Launch markets
8
Seeded AI odds pages ready for search indexing.
1M volume
$9.5M
Fallback launch index based on researched Polymarket AI markets.
Liquidity
$4.4M
Market depth represented by the initial AI odds universe.
Avg yes
23.7%
Mean probability across launch markets.
SEO entry points
Start with long-tail AI odds Google can rank.
The first site map targets Polymarket AI model, GPT-6, Claude 5, OpenAI IPO, Anthropic IPO, and AI bubble odds terms before expanding into broader LLM leaderboard head terms.
Model ranking desk
Best AI model odds and benchmark tracker
Track market-implied odds for the best AI model and compare Polymarket probabilities with LMArena, Artificial Analysis, LiveBench, and coding benchmark signals.
Release calendar
AI release odds for GPT-6, Claude 5, Grok, and Gemini
Monitor prediction-market odds for frontier AI model releases, including GPT-6, Claude 5, Grok 5, Gemini, and other model-launch markets.
Private-market desk
AI IPO odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and frontier labs
Track OpenAI IPO odds, Anthropic IPO odds, AI valuation markets, and public-listing expectations for major AI companies.
Macro risk monitor
AI bubble odds and valuation-risk tracker
Track market-implied AI bubble risk, valuation stress, largest-company markets, and probability shifts around frontier AI regulation and funding.
Top markets
High-signal AI odds to watch first.
AI Releases
Claude 5 released by August?
YES
28%
Tracks whether Anthropic releases a Claude 5-branded frontier model before the market deadline.
1M VOL
$1.9M
LIQUIDITY
$34.4K
AIClaudeAnthropicRelease
YES
31%
Tracks market-implied expectations for Anthropic's public-market valuation range.
1M VOL
$412.3K
LIQUIDITY
$265.1K
AIAnthropicClaudeIPO
AI IPOs
OpenAI IPO by 2026?
YES
19%
Tracks whether OpenAI completes or formally files for a public-market listing by the market deadline.
1M VOL
$711.1K
LIQUIDITY
$132.8K
AIOpenAIIPOValuation
Benchmark layer
Odds are stronger when they are compared with model evidence.
The launch version ships with benchmark context. API adapters can later pull live Artificial Analysis, Arena, LiveBench, and SWE-bench data.
LMArena
Human preference battles
Compare trader odds with public preference rankings.
Artificial Analysis
Intelligence, price, speed, and API quality
Explain whether odds align with model-performance indexes.
LiveBench
Contamination-resistant model benchmarking
Add evidence to release and best-model market pages.
SWE-bench
Coding-agent performance
Support best-coding-model and AI-agent market coverage.
Category
AI Models
1 launch market
Category
AI Releases
2 launch markets
Category
AI IPOs
2 launch markets
Category
AI Bubble
1 launch market
Category
AI Benchmarks
1 launch market
Category
AI Policy
1 launch market