Calculators / trading edge
Test the edge before you trust the AI odds.
Prediction-market prices are probabilities with liquidity and resolution risk attached. Use these calculators to compare the market yes price with your own fair-value estimate before reading the latest AI model news or market page.
Binary market edge
Expected value and capped Kelly sizing
Enter the current yes price and your own fair-probability estimate. Odsage calculates expected return on cost and a conservative Kelly fraction capped at 25% of bankroll.
Expected return
21.6%
Positive means your fair probability is above the market-implied price after cost.
Kelly fraction
22.4%
Capped at 25% for risk control. Many traders use half Kelly or less.
Suggested stake
$224
Calculated from bankroll times capped Kelly fraction.
Sentiment as a fair-value input
Use Odsage implied probability as a hypothesis, not an answer.
The sentiment layer turns recent public stance into an uncalibrated probability. If it diverges from market odds, copy the implied probability into the calculator only after checking the cited items and resolution wording.
Current strongest gap
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Odsage implied
75.8%
Market
9.5%
Gap
+66.3 pts
1 / Estimate
Build a fair probability
Use benchmarks, release calendars, company announcements, and liquidity context to estimate what the yes probability should be.
2 / Compare
Compare against market price
Expected value is positive only when your fair probability is sufficiently above the current yes price after downside risk.
3 / Size
Size conservatively
Kelly sizing is aggressive. Odsage caps the output and recommends treating it as a risk signal, not an instruction. Odsage is an independent information site. Prediction-market prices are not financial advice, investment advice, or trading recommendations.