Odsage methodology
AI Bubble context
Bubble markets need valuation, funding, revenue, macro, and policy context before interpreting a price move.
AI Bubble
AI bubble burst by...? odds
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. For clarity, ‘within 90 days of this market’s specified timeframe’ means that three qualifying events must occur within a single 90-day window that ends no later than the market’s final resolution deadline. For example, with a December 31, 2026 deadline, if Event A occurs on January 10, Event B on February 5, and Event C on March 3 of 2026, this would qualify because all three fall within one 90-day span. By contrast, if Event A occurs on January 10, Event B on April 20, and Event C on November 1 of 2026, they would not qualify because they do not occur within the same 90-day window. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
BusinessTechFinanceBig Tech
Current yes probability
0%
One-month volume$251.1K
24h volume$3.9K
Liquidity$58.5K
Data sourcepolymarket
Research priority
69
Watchlist. This is an information-density score, not a bet recommendation.
volume18
liquidity13
probability Tension0
news Impact22
keyword Intent15
Market quality
63
Tradable but verify
Execution48
Thin execution with estimated clean size of $502.
Resolution50
Medium wording risk; verify criteria before relying on the market price.
Evidence88
4 matching external signals in the current snapshot.
Edge69
Watchlist research-priority score from volume, liquidity, probability tension, news, and keyword intent.
Risk radar
Liquidity and execution are the main constraint. Thin execution with estimated clean size of $502.
Next action
Review the execution warning, compare fair odds, and only size after a live depth check.
Sentiment-implied probability
No sentiment snapshot is available for this market yet. The next daily intelligence refresh can add one if enough relevant mentions are found.
Parlay cross-check
External market price check
Execution quality
Thin
Estimated clean size: $502. Spread proxy: 6.3%.
$1006.7% / Check book
$5008.5% / Thin for this size
$1,00010.7% / Thin for this size
Estimated from visible volume and liquidity. Use live orderbook depth before treating a headline price as executable.
Resolution intelligence
What this market is really measuring
Use this page as a research note: check the market question, the exact resolution source on Polymarket, benchmark movement, company announcements, and liquidity before treating the displayed probability as a durable signal.
Resolution risk
Medium / 50
Medium resolution risk. Read the exact criteria and wording before treating this market price as a durable signal.
Read the exact Polymarket resolution source and deadline.
Check whether the title depends on subjective wording or ranking criteria.
Confirm which model, company, date, or valuation threshold counts.
Compare headline probability with liquidity and recent price movement.
Look for disputes, oracle updates, or clarification comments before sizing a forecast.
Signal timeline
What could move this market next
Signals are evidence prompts, not picks. The point is to separate news, model evidence, and market mechanics.
Watch
fortune.com
Top AI models are getting really good at completing professional tasks, new OpenAI GDPval benchmark shows
Benchmark movement around OpenAI, Anthropic can shift best-model and model-ranking odds before formal resolution.
winbuzzer.com
Anthropic Releases Open-Source AI Bias Test, Pitting Claude Against GPT-5, Gemini, Grok in Race for AI Neutrality
Release timing around OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI is relevant to GPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok launch markets.
www.zdnet.com
Are GPT-5.2's new powers enough to surpass Gemini 3? Try it and see
Release timing around OpenAI, Google is relevant to GPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok launch markets.
www.abhs.in
ChatGPT GPT-5 vs Claude Fable 5: SWE-Bench 72.7%, $10/M Tokens
Benchmark movement around OpenAI, Anthropic, Google can shift best-model and model-ranking odds before formal resolution.
Binary market edge
Edge check for AI bubble burst by...?
Enter the current yes price and your own fair-probability estimate. Odsage calculates expected return on cost and a conservative Kelly fraction capped at 25% of bankroll.
Expected return
700%
Positive means your fair probability is above the market-implied price after cost.
Kelly fraction
7.1%
Capped at 25% for risk control. Many traders use half Kelly or less.
Suggested stake
$71
Calculated from bankroll times capped Kelly fraction.
Forecast lab
Save your fair probability before the market moves.
Reddit users asked for calibration, CLV-style tracking, and fewer black-box picks. This lab stores your own forecast locally so you can compare it with the market later.
Current market
0%
Forecast delta
Above market by 8%
Stored in this browser only. It is a calibration journal, not a trade recommendation.
Private research note
Keep your evidence trail for this market
Save the benchmark, resolution, or news detail you want to check next. Notes stay in this browser and are never sent to Odsage.
Filtered alerts
Choose what would make AI bubble burst by...? worth revisiting.
These preferences are saved in this browser for now. Email, push, wallet, and CLOB alerts can be layered on later once the signal filters prove useful.
Related markets
Watch these with AI bubble burst by...?
YES
11.5%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
1M VOL
$2.6M
LIQUIDITY
$1.5M
AITechAI RankingsRecurring
AI Markets
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
YES
9.5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1M VOL
$2.3M
LIQUIDITY
$804.2K
TechFinanceBusinessAnthropic
AI IPOs
Anthropic IPO by __?
YES
0%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1M VOL
$1.4M
LIQUIDITY
$257.6K
FinanceIPOAnthropic IPOAnthropic