YES
10.5%
Market-implied ranking for the company expected to hold the strongest frontier AI model at month end.
1M VOL
$5.9M
LIQUIDITY
$3.8M
AIOpenAIGrokGPT-5
AI Releases
Claude 5 released by August? odds
Tracks whether Anthropic releases a Claude 5-branded frontier model before the market deadline.
AIClaudeAnthropicRelease
Current yes probability
28%
One-month volume$1.9M
24h volume$42.4K
Liquidity$34.4K
Data sourcefallback
Resolution intelligence
What this market is really measuring
Use this page as a research note: check the market question, the exact resolution source on Polymarket, benchmark movement, company announcements, and liquidity before treating the displayed probability as a durable signal.
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GPT-6 released by December?
YES
19%
Tracks market expectations for a GPT-6 release from OpenAI before year end.
1M VOL
$90.1K
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AI IPOs
OpenAI IPO by 2026?
YES
19%
Tracks whether OpenAI completes or formally files for a public-market listing by the market deadline.
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AIOpenAIIPOValuation