YES
10.5%
Market-implied ranking for the company expected to hold the strongest frontier AI model at month end.
1M VOL
$5.9M
LIQUIDITY
$3.8M
AIOpenAIGrokGPT-5
AI Releases
GPT-6 released by December? odds
Tracks market expectations for a GPT-6 release from OpenAI before year end.
AIOpenAIGPT-6Release
Current yes probability
19%
One-month volume$90.1K
24h volume$198
Liquidity$15.9K
Data sourcefallback
Resolution intelligence
What this market is really measuring
Use this page as a research note: check the market question, the exact resolution source on Polymarket, benchmark movement, company announcements, and liquidity before treating the displayed probability as a durable signal.
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Watch these with GPT-6 released by December?
AI Releases
Claude 5 released by August?
YES
28%
Tracks whether Anthropic releases a Claude 5-branded frontier model before the market deadline.
1M VOL
$1.9M
LIQUIDITY
$34.4K
AIClaudeAnthropicRelease
AI IPOs
OpenAI IPO by 2026?
YES
19%
Tracks whether OpenAI completes or formally files for a public-market listing by the market deadline.
1M VOL
$711.1K
LIQUIDITY
$132.8K
AIOpenAIIPOValuation