AI Markets

Dem sweep & US stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by end of 2027? odds

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether the US federal government takes a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by the end of 2027. Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("US stake" or "No US stake"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No". US stake in OpenAI or Anthropic: This component is "US stake" if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it is "No US stake". Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in OpenAI or Anthropic or in a legal vehicle that primarily owns either company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g., a sovereign wealth fund or state-owned enterprise) will count. Non-equity financial instruments, or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government, will not count; acquisitions by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, between market creation and the deadline will be sufficient. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements that do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement will not count. The resolution source for this component will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting. House and Senate control: A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the 2026 midterm election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the 2026 midterm election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the 2026 midterm election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the 2026 midterm election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the 2026 midterm election, this component may remain undetermined until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for the House and Senate component will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.