Odsage methodology
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IPO markets move on valuation, funding, governance, and public-listing signals rather than model quality alone.
AI IPOs
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? odds
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of Anthropic at its initial public offering (IPO) price. Anthropic refers to Anthropic PBC or the corporate successor or parent holding company whose listing represents Anthropic's business. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. The IPO valuation will be determined in the following order of precedence: (1) the implied fully diluted valuation at the final IPO price, as stated in the final prospectus or in an official Anthropic announcement; (2) if no such figure is stated, the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis as disclosed in the final prospectus, where the fully diluted count includes all outstanding shares of every class and all shares underlying outstanding options, restricted stock units, warrants, and convertible instruments, regardless of vesting or exercise status and without applying the treasury stock method; (3) if the fully diluted share count cannot be determined from the final prospectus, the implied fully diluted IPO valuation as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If the determined valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If Anthropic's IPO has not priced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". If the IPO prices by the deadline, the market will resolve according to the final prospectus even if it is published after the end date. If Anthropic becomes publicly traded without a priced initial public offering, including through a direct listing or through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, this market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AIIPOIPOsDarioClaudeFinanceBig TechAnthropicAnthropic IPO
Current yes probability
1.3%
One-month volume$130.2K
24h volume$10.1K
Liquidity$23.4K
Data sourcepolymarket
Research priority
67
Watchlist. This is an information-density score, not a bet recommendation.
volume17
liquidity12
probability Tension0
news Impact22
keyword Intent15
Market quality
59
Research only
Execution48
Thin execution with estimated clean size of $260.
Resolution38
Medium wording risk; verify criteria before relying on the market price.
Evidence88
4 matching external signals in the current snapshot.
Edge67
Watchlist research-priority score from volume, liquidity, probability tension, news, and keyword intent.
Risk radar
Resolution criteria are the main constraint. Medium wording risk; verify criteria before relying on the market price.
Next action
Wait for stronger evidence or cleaner liquidity before treating the price as actionable.
Sentiment-implied probability
No sentiment snapshot is available for this market yet. The next daily intelligence refresh can add one if enough relevant mentions are found.
Parlay cross-check
External market price check
Anthropic IPO
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
9.5%
Bid / ask
9% / 10%
Spread
1%
Volume
$175.4K
Match confidence 99%. Prices are a snapshot and can move before this page refreshes.
Anthropic IPO
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
75.5%
Bid / ask
75% / 76%
Spread
1%
Volume
$136.6K
Match confidence 99%. Prices are a snapshot and can move before this page refreshes.
Anthropic IPO
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
36.5%
Bid / ask
36% / 37%
Spread
1%
Volume
$119.4K
Match confidence 99%. Prices are a snapshot and can move before this page refreshes.
Anthropic IPO
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?
0.8%
Bid / ask
0.6% / 1%
Spread
0.4%
Volume
$39.3K
Match confidence 99%. Prices are a snapshot and can move before this page refreshes.
Execution quality
Thin
Estimated clean size: $260. Spread proxy: 6.8%.
$1007.9% / Check book
$50012.4% / Thin for this size
$1,00017.9% / Thin for this size
Estimated from visible volume and liquidity. Use live orderbook depth before treating a headline price as executable.
Resolution intelligence
What this market is really measuring
Use this page as a research note: check the market question, the exact resolution source on Polymarket, benchmark movement, company announcements, and liquidity before treating the displayed probability as a durable signal.
Resolution risk
Medium / 62
Medium resolution risk. Read the exact criteria and wording before treating this market price as a durable signal.
Read the exact Polymarket resolution source and deadline.
Check whether the title depends on subjective wording or ranking criteria.
Confirm which model, company, date, or valuation threshold counts.
Compare headline probability with liquidity and recent price movement.
Look for disputes, oracle updates, or clarification comments before sizing a forecast.
Signal timeline
What could move this market next
Signals are evidence prompts, not picks. The point is to separate news, model evidence, and market mechanics.
Watch
fortune.com
Top AI models are getting really good at completing professional tasks, new OpenAI GDPval benchmark shows
Benchmark movement around OpenAI, Anthropic can shift best-model and model-ranking odds before formal resolution.
winbuzzer.com
Anthropic Releases Open-Source AI Bias Test, Pitting Claude Against GPT-5, Gemini, Grok in Race for AI Neutrality
Release timing around OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI is relevant to GPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok launch markets.
www.abhs.in
ChatGPT GPT-5 vs Claude Fable 5: SWE-Bench 72.7%, $10/M Tokens
Benchmark movement around OpenAI, Anthropic, Google can shift best-model and model-ranking odds before formal resolution.
www.bgr.com
These 7 AI Chatbots Are Better Than ChatGPT, According To Users
Track whether this news flow changes model-leadership, release-timing, or AI-sector odds.
Binary market edge
Edge check for What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
Enter the current yes price and your own fair-probability estimate. Odsage calculates expected return on cost and a conservative Kelly fraction capped at 25% of bankroll.
Expected return
615.4%
Positive means your fair probability is above the market-implied price after cost.
Kelly fraction
8.1%
Capped at 25% for risk control. Many traders use half Kelly or less.
Suggested stake
$81
Calculated from bankroll times capped Kelly fraction.
Forecast lab
Save your fair probability before the market moves.
Reddit users asked for calibration, CLV-style tracking, and fewer black-box picks. This lab stores your own forecast locally so you can compare it with the market later.
Current market
1.3%
Forecast delta
Above market by 8%
Stored in this browser only. It is a calibration journal, not a trade recommendation.
Private research note
Keep your evidence trail for this market
Save the benchmark, resolution, or news detail you want to check next. Notes stay in this browser and are never sent to Odsage.
Filtered alerts
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These preferences are saved in this browser for now. Email, push, wallet, and CLOB alerts can be layered on later once the signal filters prove useful.
Related markets
Watch these with What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
YES
10.5%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
1M VOL
$2.6M
LIQUIDITY
$1.5M
AITechAI RankingsRecurring
AI Markets
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
YES
9.5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1M VOL
$2.3M
LIQUIDITY
$810.2K
TechFinanceBusinessAnthropic
AI IPOs
Anthropic IPO by __?
YES
0%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1M VOL
$1.4M
LIQUIDITY
$255.6K
FinanceIPOAnthropic IPOAnthropic