Odsage methodology
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Model leadership markets should be compared with benchmarks, releases, product access, and liquidity.
AI Markets
Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026? odds
On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify. For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual. A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify. Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and on-the-record statements by the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, or other U.S. federal agencies or their authorized representatives acting in an official capacity, as well as official statements by OpenAI. Once a qualifying allegation has been made, no subsequent retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI.
AIFBITechCourtsOpenAIBig TechGeopoliticsSaudi Arabia
Current yes probability
7%
One-month volume$123.6K
24h volume$8.2K
Liquidity$175K
Data sourcepolymarket
Research priority
72
Watchlist. This is an information-density score, not a bet recommendation.
volume17
liquidity15
probability Tension3
news Impact22
keyword Intent15
Market quality
75
Tradable but verify
Execution78
Good execution with estimated clean size of $247.
Resolution62
Low wording risk; verify criteria before relying on the market price.
Evidence88
4 matching external signals in the current snapshot.
Edge72
Watchlist research-priority score from volume, liquidity, probability tension, news, and keyword intent.
Risk radar
Resolution criteria are the main constraint. Low wording risk; verify criteria before relying on the market price.
Next action
Review the resolution warning, compare fair odds, and only size after a live depth check.
Sentiment-implied probability
No sentiment snapshot is available for this market yet. The next daily intelligence refresh can add one if enough relevant mentions are found.
Parlay cross-check
External market price check
No Parlay match is available in the current static snapshot. The next refresh will retry this market without calling the API from the browser.
Execution quality
Good
Estimated clean size: $247. Spread proxy: 5.7%.
$1005.8% / Check book
$5006.4% / Check book
$1,0007.2% / Check book
Estimated from visible volume and liquidity. Use live orderbook depth before treating a headline price as executable.
Resolution intelligence
What this market is really measuring
Use this page as a research note: check the market question, the exact resolution source on Polymarket, benchmark movement, company announcements, and liquidity before treating the displayed probability as a durable signal.
Resolution risk
Low / 38
Low resolution risk. Read the exact criteria and wording before treating this market price as a durable signal.
Read the exact Polymarket resolution source and deadline.
Check whether the title depends on subjective wording or ranking criteria.
Confirm which model, company, date, or valuation threshold counts.
Compare headline probability with liquidity and recent price movement.
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Signal timeline
What could move this market next
Signals are evidence prompts, not picks. The point is to separate news, model evidence, and market mechanics.
Watch
fortune.com
Top AI models are getting really good at completing professional tasks, new OpenAI GDPval benchmark shows
Benchmark movement around OpenAI, Anthropic can shift best-model and model-ranking odds before formal resolution.
winbuzzer.com
Anthropic Releases Open-Source AI Bias Test, Pitting Claude Against GPT-5, Gemini, Grok in Race for AI Neutrality
Release timing around OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI is relevant to GPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok launch markets.
www.zdnet.com
Are GPT-5.2's new powers enough to surpass Gemini 3? Try it and see
Release timing around OpenAI, Google is relevant to GPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok launch markets.
www.abhs.in
ChatGPT GPT-5 vs Claude Fable 5: SWE-Bench 72.7%, $10/M Tokens
Benchmark movement around OpenAI, Anthropic, Google can shift best-model and model-ranking odds before formal resolution.
Binary market edge
Edge check for Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
Enter the current yes price and your own fair-probability estimate. Odsage calculates expected return on cost and a conservative Kelly fraction capped at 25% of bankroll.
Expected return
114.3%
Positive means your fair probability is above the market-implied price after cost.
Kelly fraction
8.6%
Capped at 25% for risk control. Many traders use half Kelly or less.
Suggested stake
$86
Calculated from bankroll times capped Kelly fraction.
Forecast lab
Save your fair probability before the market moves.
Reddit users asked for calibration, CLV-style tracking, and fewer black-box picks. This lab stores your own forecast locally so you can compare it with the market later.
Current market
7%
Forecast delta
Above market by 8%
Stored in this browser only. It is a calibration journal, not a trade recommendation.
Private research note
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Watch these with Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
YES
8%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
1M VOL
$2.5M
LIQUIDITY
$1.6M
AITechAI RankingsRecurring
AI Markets
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
YES
9.5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1M VOL
$2.3M
LIQUIDITY
$687.8K
TechFinanceBusinessAnthropic
AI Releases
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
YES
40.5%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
1M VOL
$1.4M
LIQUIDITY
$1.4M
TechAIGrokOpenAI