YES
10.5%
Market-implied ranking for the company expected to hold the strongest frontier AI model at month end.
1M VOL
$5.9M
LIQUIDITY
$3.8M
AIOpenAIGrokGPT-5
AI Benchmarks
Claude score on FrontierMath benchmark by June 30? odds
Compares benchmark-driven Claude expectations against market-implied probability.
AIClaudeBenchmarkFrontierMath
Current yes probability
44%
One-month volume$47K
24h volume$0
Liquidity$377
Data sourcefallback
Resolution intelligence
What this market is really measuring
Use this page as a research note: check the market question, the exact resolution source on Polymarket, benchmark movement, company announcements, and liquidity before treating the displayed probability as a durable signal.
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Watch these with Claude score on FrontierMath benchmark by June 30?
AI Releases
Claude 5 released by August?
YES
28%
Tracks whether Anthropic releases a Claude 5-branded frontier model before the market deadline.
1M VOL
$1.9M
LIQUIDITY
$34.4K
AIClaudeAnthropicRelease
AI Releases
GPT-6 released by December?
YES
19%
Tracks market expectations for a GPT-6 release from OpenAI before year end.
1M VOL
$90.1K
LIQUIDITY
$15.9K
AIOpenAIGPT-6Release